Tsvangirai is committing suicide

Just hours after debating with my friend Khadija whether Morgan Tsvangirai, the Zimbabwean opposition leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) would pull out of the presidential run-off, the bolt hit us. I got home only to turn on the telly and see him make the decision. He could not continue exposing his supporters to “lethal violence” perpetuated by Robert Mugabe’s thugs.
In my earlier talk with Khadija, I had said whereas Tsvangirai had all the justification to pull out, it was my utmost hope that he would not. Now he has and from the word go---I want to show that this could be the biggest miscalculation of Tsvangirai’s political career.
First, let us get this straight. The political terrain in Africa has never been smooth. You do not expect a level playing field if you are an opposition candidate in Africa. Before the 2006 elections in Uganda, the main opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, was arrested on trumped up charges of rape. So, as incumbent President Museveni was going about campaigning freely, his opponent was shackled, making occasional appearances in court. Besigye’s wife, Winnie, took to parading their young son, Anselm at what should have been Besigye rallies. Only when the President had covered enough ground was Besigye released—a few weeks to the poll.
In Rwanda, Vice-President Kagame, who had set up a pseudo-democracy by letting Pasteur Bizimungu run the country for a while, shed off his coat and got Bizimungu arrested. He claimed the mantle and as we know today, Rwanda is a Police state. Dissent is harshly treated. I even believe that Mbeki was up to some games when he (albeit indirectly) orchestrated Zuma’s rape trail. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has had it rough as Mubarak plots to have his son take over. The list, in brief, is endless.
It should therefore have dawned on Tsvangirai, the day he took to politics that the faint-hearted do not thrive in this field. Success in politics does not come on a silver platter. You sweat for it, at times die for it. Look at Kenya; it took the deaths of close to 300 people before Kibaki could accept to share power with Raila Odinga—even when it was clear even to the blind that Kibaki had rigged. And we know that revolutions elsewhere have claimed lives in thousands and millions. So, Tsvangirai says 70 supporters have been killed in the run up to the elections and he calls it quits? That is a joke!!
And what did Tsvangirai think he would achieve by walking away from the polls? International condemnation that would yield nothing? For the past decade Britain and the US have taken to condemning Mugabe---imposing sanctions etc. But the megalomaniac has not moved even an inch. The US says it is going to raise the issue with the UN Security Council. But of what effect will that be? We know that the UN has provisions that allow for forceful intervention. But after the debacle in Somalia in 1994, I don’t think the US is ready to risk their marines on African soil. And with the Iraq invasion going haywire, a possible change in Washington in November, I don’t think that line (forceful removal) will work.
The regional bloc SADC has also proved to be a paper tiger. Apart from Levy Mwanawasa, the other presidents in the region are still revering their “liberator”. Mbeki, the regional mediator, is known to be the biggest coward in the region. He chooses to see things from a different perspective. He mooted the idea of a government of national unity, which Mugabe threw back to his face. Look at the nonsense he told Reuters after hearing of Tsvangirai’s decision:
"From our point of view it is still necessary that the political leadership of Zimbabwe should get together and find a solution to the challenges that face Zimbabwe."

So, it all comes back to one thing. Tsvangirai and Zimbabweans have the duty to uproot the cancer that is Mugabe. This will not be achieved by cowardice. The very reason Mugabe has unleashed thugs on people is because he is scared of defeat. His rumbles that only God can get him off the throne are an empty echo of a coward. The MDC should not have relented at this point. You do not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory just like that. The first round of voting was held in similar conditions but Tsvangirai came up on top. He has underestimated the will of Zimbabweans to change events. I was convinced that come Election Day, Mugabe was going to get a thrashing of his life. But see what Tsvangirai does—walks straight into the bastard’s net. Mugabe can now have more five years of madness!!! And Zimbabweans will look on as they slope further into the doldrums. Tsavangirai has joined the club of those who came very close--but never got the prize. His fate now depends on forces beyond him. He has subjected himself to oblivion and irrelevancy--in brief, he has committed political suicide!!!

Africa's Image, manufactured-perception dogging the real deal.

If wars, election chaos, xenophobia, genocide, corruption and Aids are indeed Africa's only news then the ostensible thrust of African journalism amounts to aping western standards of newsworthiness. There is no denying the problems crippling the continent, but is that all there is to Africa?

The recently adjourned, World Economic Forum for Africa at Cape Town's International Convention Centre was themed,“Capitalising on Opportunity”. The continent's first staging of The Fifa World Cup™ in 2010 was a major focus of the three-day forum, as the event is seen as 'arguably the biggest opportunity for the re-branding and reinforcing of a positive image of Africa'.

On Thursday, the panel that included, Mark Lamberti, chairperson of Massmart (SA), Wendy Luhabe, chairperson of of the Industrial Development Corporation (SA), Betty Maina, CE of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, and Simon Kolawale, editor of Nigeria's This Day tackled the subject of crime. Well known, to be one of South Africa's major concerns, the panelists however, disagreed with the notion of crime being a uniquely South African problem, and instead labelled it a 'continent-wide crisis'. While a variety of competing explanations were offered in discussing the problem, Wendy Luhabe felt crime was a function of poverty and inequality. 'Africa is a wealthy continent, but its people are poor. Millions of Africans live on less than a dollar a day. This obscene economic gap is responsible for the high levels of crime and corruption,' she said. Lamberti, hoever, argued that South Africa's high levels of crime were a consequence of the parlous state of the criminal justice system on the one hand, and on the other, a consequence of social ills. Lamberti also pointed out that many countries , like India and China, have horrific poverty and inequality without our crime levels. It appears then, the crime problem is not easily explained away. It is an insidious problem, that is the product of a combination of factors, but how is it best tackled?

President Mbeki, earned the headline, 'Target: Mbeki' from Independent Newspapers after he publicly disagreed with the forum about there being a crisis of leadership on the continent. While President Mbeki's oft-published caricature as an ostrich-type figure, with its head in the sand while the world about him falls apart, would certainly deter the President himself from being a shining beacon of African leadership, he would not accept the criticism or the generalisations about the continent's leadership."There is much better clarity in the political leadership on the continent," he maintained. "There is greater clarity on how to respond to economic challenges. And there is an appreciation of the need to deal with conflict." In terms of governance, the continent was "evolving in the correct direction".While avoiding any mention of Zimbabwe, he used Nigeria as an example of the way the quality of leadership had changed. Mbeki told delegates that military strongman Sani Abacha had lied to him about the fate of activist Ken Saro Wiwa, promising he would not be harmed, only to hang him once he (Mbeki) left Nigeria. All these years later, Nigeria was developing in a good and positive way, with President Umaru Yar'Adua reviewing the electoral system.

Coca-Cola chairperson Neville Isdell, a speaker at the closing session of the forum, said he agreed with President Mbeki in that there has been change. This is underscored by the level of economic growth and investment in Africa. One can identify where improvement is taking place by looking where investment is going.There is also change at another level, in the growth of a middle class and a new educated elite, who have shaken off the shackles of the past and have a new view of Africa.This in itself has begun engineering democratic change and also underpins it.

Afro-pessimists would have had us believe that Africa could never host an event of the stature of the The Fifa World Cup™ , much less, develop the requisite infrastructure in time. Yet, just as the delegates of the forum in the picture above, visited the stadium in Green Point, Cape Town to note progress on construction, I was heartily warmed during a recent trip to the area around the FNB stadium in Johannesburg to note the stadium rapidly growing into the calabash shell of the artist's impression.